|
|
Boost-Commit : |
From: pbristow_at_[hidden]
Date: 2007-09-17 11:06:34
Author: pbristow
Date: 2007-09-17 11:06:32 EDT (Mon, 17 Sep 2007)
New Revision: 39348
URL: http://svn.boost.org/trac/boost/changeset/39348
Log:
revised binomial quiz example
Text files modified:
sandbox/math_toolkit/libs/math/example/binomial_quiz_example.cpp | 549 +++++++++++++++++++++++++--------------
1 files changed, 354 insertions(+), 195 deletions(-)
Modified: sandbox/math_toolkit/libs/math/example/binomial_quiz_example.cpp
==============================================================================
--- sandbox/math_toolkit/libs/math/example/binomial_quiz_example.cpp (original)
+++ sandbox/math_toolkit/libs/math/example/binomial_quiz_example.cpp 2007-09-17 11:06:32 EDT (Mon, 17 Sep 2007)
@@ -17,7 +17,8 @@
/*`
A multiple choice test has four possible answers to each of 16 questions.
A student guesses the answer to each question,
-so the probability of getting a correct answer on any given question is 1/4 = 0.25.
+so the probability of getting a correct answer on any given question is
+one in four, a quarter, 1/4, 25% or fraction 0.25.
The conditions of the binomial experiment are assumed to be met:
n = 16 questions constitute the trials;
each question results in one of two possible outcomes (correct or incorrect);
@@ -25,115 +26,221 @@
the questions are answered independently if the student's answer to a question
in no way influences his/her answer to another question.
-The number of correct answers, X, is distributed as a binomial random variable
-with binomial distribution parameters n = 16 and p = 0.25.
-The program below displays the probabilities for each of the 17 possible outcomes,
-i.e., for X = 0, 1, ..., 16, in a line chart.
-
-First we need to be able to use the binomial distribution constructor
-(and some std input/output, of course)
+First, we need to be able to use the binomial distribution constructor
+(and some std input/output, of course).
*/
#include <boost/math/distributions/binomial.hpp>
using boost::math::binomial;
#include <iostream>
-using std::cout;
-using std::endl;
-using std::ios;
-using std::flush;
-using std::left;
-using std::right;
-using std::fixed;
+ using std::cout; using std::endl;
+ using std::ios; using std::flush; using std::left; using std::right; using std::fixed;
#include <iomanip>
-using std::setw;
-using std::setprecision;
+ using std::setw; using std::setprecision;
//][/binomial_quiz_example1]
-//[binomial_quiz_example2
int main()
{
try
{
cout << "Binomial distribution example - guessing in a quiz." << endl;
- /*`
- The number of correct answers, X, is distributed as a binomial random variable
- with binomial distribution parameters n = 16 and p = 0.25.
- */
- cout.precision(5); // Might be able to calculate a best value for this?
+//[binomial_quiz_example2
+/*`
+The number of correct answers, X, is distributed as a binomial random variable
+with binomial distribution parameters questions n = 16 and success fraction probability p = 0.25,
+so we construct a binomial distribution:
+*/
int questions = 16;
int answers = 4; // possible answers to each question.
double success_fraction = (double)answers / (double)questions; // If a random guess.
// Caution: = answers / questions would be zero (because they are integers)!
- int pass_score = 11;
-
- /*`
- Construct our Binomial distribution.
- */
binomial quiz(questions, success_fraction);
/*`
- and display the parameters we used.
+ and display the parameters we used thus:
*/
cout << "In a quiz with " << quiz.trials()
<< " questions and with a probability of guessing right of "
<< quiz.success_fraction() * 100 << " %"
<< " or 1 in " << static_cast<int>(1. / quiz.success_fraction()) << endl;
- /*`
- Show some probabilities of just guessing: these don't give any
- encouragement to guessers!
- */
+/*`
+Show a few probabilities of just guessing: these don't give any
+encouragement to guessers!
+*/
cout << "Probability of getting none right is " << pdf(quiz, 0) << endl; // 0.010023
- cout << "Probability of getting at least one right is " << 1 - pdf(quiz, 1) << endl; // 0.94655
- cout << "Probability of getting none or one right is " << pdf(quiz, 0) + pdf(quiz, 1) << endl; // 0.063476
cout << "Probability of getting exactly one right is " << pdf(quiz, 1) << endl;
- cout << "Probability of getting exactly 11 right is " << pdf(quiz, 11) << endl;
- cout << "Probability of getting > 10 right (to pass) is " << cdf(complement(quiz, 10)) << endl;
-
- // Using Binomial probabilities.
- cout << "The probability of getting all the answers wrong by chance is "
- << pdf(quiz, 0) << endl;
- cout << "The probability of getting all the answers right by chance is "
+ cout << "Probability of getting exactly two right is " << pdf(quiz, 2) << endl;
+ int pass_score = 11;
+ cout << "Probability of getting exactly " << pass_score << " answers right by chance is "
<< pdf(quiz, questions) << endl;
- cout << "The probability of getting exactly " << pass_score
- << " answers right by guessing is " << pdf(quiz, pass_score) << endl << endl;
-
- cout << "The probability of getting less then " << pass_score
- << "(< " << pass_score << ") answers right by guessing is "
- << cdf(quiz, pass_score) << endl;
-
- cout << "The probability of getting at least " << pass_score
- << "(>= " << pass_score << ") answers right by guessing is "
- << cdf(complement(quiz, pass_score-1))
- << " only 1 in " << 1/cdf(complement(quiz, pass_score-1)) << endl;
+/*`
+[pre
+Probability of getting none right is 0.0100226
+Probability of getting exactly one right is 0.0534538
+Probability of getting exactly two right is 0.133635
+Probability of getting exactly 11 answers right by chance is 2.32831e-010
+]
+These don't give any encouragement to guessers!
- /*`
- Tabulate probability versus number right.
- */
- cout << "\n" "Guessed right Probability" << right << endl;
+We can tabulate the getting exactly ( == ) right thus:
+*/
+ cout << "\n" "Guessed Probability" << right << endl;
for (int successes = 0; successes <= questions; successes++)
{
double probability = pdf(quiz, successes);
- cout << setw(2) << successes << " " << probability << endl;
+ cout << setw(2) << successes << " " << probability << endl;
}
cout << endl;
+/*`
+[pre
+Guessed Probability
+ 0 0.0100226
+ 1 0.0534538
+ 2 0.133635
+ 3 0.207876
+ 4 0.225199
+ 5 0.180159
+ 6 0.110097
+ 7 0.0524273
+ 8 0.0196602
+ 9 0.00582526
+10 0.00135923
+11 0.000247132
+12 3.43239e-005
+13 3.5204e-006
+14 2.51457e-007
+15 1.11759e-008
+16 2.32831e-010
+]
+Then we can add the probabilities of several 'exactly right' like this:
+*/
+ cout << "Probability of getting none or one right is " << pdf(quiz, 0) + pdf(quiz, 1) << endl;
+
+/*`
+[pre
+Probability of getting none or one right is 0.0634764
+]
+But if more than a couple of scores are involved, it is more convenient (and may be more accurate)
+to use the Cumulative Distribution Function (cdf) instead:
+*/
+ cout << "Probability of getting none or one right is " << cdf(quiz, 1) << endl;
+/*`
+[pre
+Probability of getting none or one right is 0.0634764
+]
+Since the cdf is inclusive, ( <= )
+*/
+ cout << "Probability of getting <= 10 right (to fail) is " << cdf(quiz, 10) << endl;
+/*`
+[pre
+Probability of getting <= 10 right (to fail) is 0.999715
+]
+It is tempting to write
+*/
+ cout << "Probability of getting > 10 right (to pass) is " << 1 - cdf(quiz, 10) << endl;
+/*`
+[pre
+Probability of getting > 10 right (to pass) is 0.000285239
+]
+But this should be resisted in favor of using the complement function thus. __why_complements.
+*/
+ cout << "Probability of getting > 10 right (to pass) is " << cdf(complement(quiz, 10)) << endl;
+/*`
+[pre
+Probability of getting > 10 right (to pass) is 0.000285239
+]
+And we can check that these two, <= 10 and > 10, add up to unity.
+*/
+BOOST_ASSERT((cdf(quiz, 10) + cdf(complement(quiz, 10))) == 1.);
+/*`
+If we want a < rather than a <= test, because the CDF is inclusive, we must subtract one from the score.
+*/
+ cout << "Probability of getting less than " << pass_score
+ << " (< " << pass_score << ") answers right by guessing is "
+ << cdf(quiz, pass_score -1) << endl;
+/*`
+[pre
+Probability of getting less than 11 (< 11) answers right by guessing is 0.999715
+]
+and similarly to get a > rather than a >= test, because the cdf complement is also inclusive,
+we also need to subtract one from the score (and again check the sum is unity).
+*/
+ cout << "Probability of getting at least " << pass_score
+ << "(>= " << pass_score << ") answers right by guessing is "
+ << cdf(complement(quiz, pass_score-1))
+ << ", only 1 in " << 1/cdf(complement(quiz, pass_score-1)) << endl;
+ BOOST_ASSERT((cdf(quiz, pass_score -1) + cdf(complement(quiz, pass_score-1))) == 1);
- cout << "\n" "At most (<=)""\n""Guessed right Probability" << right << endl;
+/*`
+[pre
+Probability of getting at least 11(>= 11) answers right by guessing is 0.000285239, only 1 in 3505.83
+]
+Finally we can tabulate some probabilities:
+*/
+ cout << "\n" "At most (<=)""\n""Guessed OK Probability" << right << endl;
for (int score = 0; score <= questions; score++)
{
- cout << setw(2) << score << " " << cdf(quiz, score) << endl;
+ cout << setw(2) << score << " " << setprecision(10)
+ << cdf(quiz, score) << endl;
}
cout << endl;
-
- cout << "\n" "At least (>=)""\n""Guessed right Probability" << right << endl;
+/*`
+[pre
+At most (<=)
+Guessed OK Probability
+ 0 0.01002259576
+ 1 0.0634764398
+ 2 0.1971110499
+ 3 0.4049871101
+ 4 0.6301861752
+ 5 0.8103454274
+ 6 0.9204427481
+ 7 0.9728700437
+ 8 0.9925302796
+ 9 0.9983555346
+10 0.9997147608
+11 0.9999618928
+12 0.9999962167
+13 0.9999997371
+14 0.9999999886
+15 0.9999999998
+16 1
+]
+*/
+ cout << "\n" "At least (>=)""\n""Guessed OK Probability" << right << endl;
for (int score = 0; score <= questions; score++)
{
- cout << setw(2) << score << " " << cdf(complement(quiz, score)) << endl;
+ cout << setw(2) << score << " " << setprecision(10)
+ << cdf(complement(quiz, score)) << endl;
}
- /*`
- Calculate the probability of getting a range of guesses right,
- first by adding the exact probabilities of each of low ... high.
- */
+/*`
+[pre
+At least (>=)
+Guessed OK Probability
+ 0 0.9899774042
+ 1 0.9365235602
+ 2 0.8028889501
+ 3 0.5950128899
+ 4 0.3698138248
+ 5 0.1896545726
+ 6 0.07955725188
+ 7 0.02712995629
+ 8 0.00746972044
+ 9 0.001644465374
+10 0.0002852391917
+11 3.810715862e-005
+12 3.783265129e-006
+13 2.628657967e-007
+14 1.140870154e-008
+15 2.328306437e-010
+16 0
+]
+We now consider the probabilities of *ranges* of correct guesses.
+
+Calculate the probability of getting a range of guesses right,
+first, by adding the exact probabilities of each of low ... high.
+*/
int low = 3;
int high = 5;
double sum = 0.;
@@ -141,33 +248,43 @@
{
sum += pdf(quiz, i);
}
- cout << "The probability of getting between "
+ cout.precision(4);
+ cout << "Probability of getting between "
<< low << " and " << high << " answers right by guessing is "
<< sum << endl; // 0.61323
-
- /*`
- Or, better, we can use the difference of cdfs instead:
- */
- cout << "The probability of getting between " << low << " and " << high << " answers right by guessing is "
+ cout << "Probability of getting between " << low << " and " << high << " answers right by guessing is "
<< cdf(quiz, high) - cdf(quiz, low - 1) << endl; // 0.61323
+/*`
+[pre
+Probability of getting between 3 and 5 answers right by guessing is 0.6132
+]
+Or, usually better, we can use the difference of cdfs instead:
+*/
+
// And a few more combinations of high and low choices:
low = 1; high = 6;
- cout << "The probability of getting between " << low << " and " << high << " answers right by guessing is "
+ cout << "Probability of getting between " << low << " and " << high << " answers right by guessing is "
<< cdf(quiz, high) - cdf(quiz, low - 1) << endl; // 1 and 6 P= 0.91042
low = 1; high = 8;
- cout << "The probability of getting between " << low << " and " << high << " answers right by guessing is "
+ cout << "Probability of getting between " << low << " and " << high << " answers right by guessing is "
<< cdf(quiz, high) - cdf(quiz, low - 1) << endl; // 1 <= x 8 P = 0.9825
low = 4; high = 4;
- cout << "The probability of getting between " << low << " and " << high << " answers right by guessing is "
+ cout << "Probability of getting between " << low << " and " << high << " answers right by guessing is "
<< cdf(quiz, high) - cdf(quiz, low - 1) << endl; // 4 <= x 4 P = 0.22520
low = 3; high = 5;
- cout << "The probability of getting between " << low << " and " << high << " answers right by guessing is "
+ cout << "Probability of getting between " << low << " and " << high << " answers right by guessing is "
<< cdf(quiz, high) - cdf(quiz, low - 1) << endl; // P 3 to 5 right
- /*`
- Using Binomial distribution moments,
- we can say more about the spread of results from guessing.
- */
+/*`
+[pre
+Probability of getting between 1 and 6 answers right by guessing is 0.9104
+Probability of getting between 1 and 8 answers right by guessing is 0.9825
+Probability of getting between 4 and 4 answers right by guessing is 0.2252
+Probability of getting between 3 and 5 answers right by guessing is 0.6132
+]
+[h4 Using Binomial distribution moments]
+We can say more about the spread of results from guessing.
+*/
cout << "By guessing, on average, one can expect to get " << mean(quiz) << " correct answers." << endl;
cout << "Standard deviation is " << standard_deviation(quiz) << endl;
cout << "So about 2/3 will lie within 1 standard deviation and get between "
@@ -176,72 +293,109 @@
cout << "Mode (the most frequent) is " << mode(quiz) << endl;
cout << "Skewness is " << skewness(quiz) << endl;
- /*`
- Show the use of quantiles (percentiles or percentage points) for a
- few probability levels:
- */
- cout << "Quantiles" << endl;
+/*`
+[pre
+By guessing, on average, one can expect to get 4 correct answers.
+Standard deviation is 1.732
+So about 2/3 will lie within 1 standard deviation and get between 3 and 5 correct.
+Mode (the most frequent) is 4
+Skewness is 0.2887
+]
+[h4 Quantiles]
+The quantiles (percentiles or percentage points) for a few probability levels:
+*/
cout << "Quartiles " << quantile(quiz, 0.25) << " to "
- << quantile(complement(quiz, 0.25)) << endl; // Quartiles 2.2821 4.6212
- cout << "1 sd " << quantile(quiz, 0.33) << " to "
- << quantile(quiz, 0.67) << endl; // 1 sd 2.6654 4.1935
+ << quantile(complement(quiz, 0.25)) << endl; // Quartiles
+ cout << "1 standard deviation " << quantile(quiz, 0.33) << " to "
+ << quantile(quiz, 0.67) << endl; // 1 sd
cout << "Deciles " << quantile(quiz, 0.1) << " to "
- << quantile(complement(quiz, 0.1))<< endl; // Deciles 1.3487 5.7583
+ << quantile(complement(quiz, 0.1))<< endl; // Deciles
cout << "5 to 95% " << quantile(quiz, 0.05) << " to "
- << quantile(complement(quiz, 0.05))<< endl; // 5 to 95% 0.83739 6.4559
+ << quantile(complement(quiz, 0.05))<< endl; // 5 to 95%
cout << "2.5 to 97.5% " << quantile(quiz, 0.025) << " to "
- << quantile(complement(quiz, 0.025)) << endl; // 2.5 to 97.5% 0.42806 7.0688
+ << quantile(complement(quiz, 0.025)) << endl; // 2.5 to 97.5%
cout << "2 to 98% " << quantile(quiz, 0.02) << " to "
- << quantile(complement(quiz, 0.02)) << endl; // 2 to 98% 0.31311 7.7880
+ << quantile(complement(quiz, 0.02)) << endl; // 2 to 98%
cout << "If guessing then percentiles 1 to 99% will get " << quantile(quiz, 0.01)
- << " to " << quantile(complement(quiz, 0.01)) << " right." << endl;
+ << " to " << quantile(complement(quiz, 0.01)) << " right." << endl;
+/*`
+which output these integral values because the default policy is `integer_round_outwards`.
+[pre
+Quartiles 2 to 5
+1 standard deviation 2 to 5
+Deciles 1 to 6
+5 to 95% 0 to 7
+2.5 to 97.5% 0 to 8
+2 to 98% 0 to 8
+]
+*/
+
//] [/binomial_quiz_example2]
//[discrete_quantile_real
/*`
-The quantiles values are controlled by the discrete quantile policy chosen.
+Quantiles values are controlled by the
+[link math_toolkit.policy.pol_ref.discrete_quant_ref discrete quantile policy]
+chosen.
The default is `integer_round_outwards`,
so the lower quantile is rounded down, and the upper quantile is rounded up.
-We can control the policy for all distributions by
+But we might believe that the real values tell us a little more - see
+[link math_toolkit.policy.pol_tutorial.understand_dis_quant Understanding discrete quantile policy].
+
+We could control the policy for *all* distributions by
#define BOOST_MATH_DISCRETE_QUANTILE_POLICY real
at the head of the program would make this policy apply
to this *one, and only*, translation unit.
-Or we can create a (typedef for) policy that has discrete quantiles real.
-*/
- using namespace boost::math::policies;
-/*`
-Convenient for all policy and typelist values like discrete_quantile.
-*/
- using namespace boost::math;
-/*`
-for binomial_distribution
-
-Or to be more specific, to avoid 'using namespaces ...' statements:
+Or we can now create a (typedef for) policy that has discrete quantiles real.
+(here avoiding any 'using namespaces ...' statements):
*/
using boost::math::policies::policy;
using boost::math::policies::discrete_quantile;
using boost::math::policies::real;
using boost::math::policies::integer_round_outwards; // Default.
typedef boost::math::policies::policy<discrete_quantile<real> > real_quantile_policy;
- /*`
- Add a binomial distribution called real_quantile_binomial that uses real_quantile_policy.
- */
+/*`
+Add a binomial distribution called real_quantile_binomial that uses real_quantile_policy.
+*/
using boost::math::binomial_distribution;
typedef binomial_distribution<double, real_quantile_policy> real_quantile_binomial;
- /*`
- Construct a distribution of this custom real_quantile_binomial distribution;
- */
+/*`
+Construct a distribution of this custom real_quantile_binomial distribution;
+*/
real_quantile_binomial quiz_real(questions, success_fraction);
- /*`
- And use this to show some quantiles - that now have real rather than integer values.
- */
-
- cout << "Real Quartiles " << quantile(quiz_real, 0.25) << " to "
- << quantile(complement(quiz_real, 0.25)) << endl; // Real Quartiles 2.2821 to 4.6212
+/*`
+And use this to show some quantiles - that now have real rather than integer values.
+*/
+ cout << "Quartiles " << quantile(quiz, 0.25) << " to "
+ << quantile(complement(quiz_real, 0.25)) << endl; // Quartiles 2.2821 4.6212
+ cout << "1 standard deviation " << quantile(quiz_real, 0.33) << " to "
+ << quantile(quiz_real, 0.67) << endl; // 1 sd 2.6654 4.1935
+ cout << "Deciles " << quantile(quiz_real, 0.1) << " to "
+ << quantile(complement(quiz_real, 0.1))<< endl; // Deciles 1.3487 5.7583
+ cout << "5 to 95% " << quantile(quiz_real, 0.05) << " to "
+ << quantile(complement(quiz_real, 0.05))<< endl; // 5 to 95% 0.83739 6.4559
+ cout << "2.5 to 97.5% " << quantile(quiz_real, 0.025) << " to "
+ << quantile(complement(quiz_real, 0.025)) << endl; // 2.5 to 97.5% 0.42806 7.0688
+ cout << "2 to 98% " << quantile(quiz_real, 0.02) << " to "
+ << quantile(complement(quiz_real, 0.02)) << endl; // 2 to 98% 0.31311 7.7880
+
+ cout << "If guessing then percentiles 1 to 99% will get " << quantile(quiz_real, 0.01)
+ << " to " << quantile(complement(quiz_real, 0.01)) << " right." << endl;
+/*`Real Quantiles
+[pre
+Quartiles 2 to 4.621
+1 standard deviation 2.665 to 4.194
+Deciles 1.349 to 5.758
+5 to 95% 0.8374 to 6.456
+2.5 to 97.5% 0.4281 to 7.069
+2 to 98% 0.3131 to 7.252
+If guessing then percentiles 1 to 99% will get 0 to 7.788 right.
+]
+*/
//] [/discrete_quantile_real]
}
@@ -265,93 +419,98 @@
Binomial distribution example - guessing in a quiz.
In a quiz with 16 questions and with a probability of guessing right of 25 % or 1 in 4
-Probability of getting none right is 0.010023
-Probability of getting at least one right is 0.94655
-Probability of getting none or one right is 0.063476
-Probability of getting exactly one right is 0.053454
-Probability of getting exactly 11 right is 0.00024713
-Probability of getting > 10 right (to pass) is 0.00028524
-The probability of getting all the answers wrong by chance is 0.010023
-The probability of getting all the answers right by chance is 2.3283e-010
-The probability of getting exactly 11 answers right by guessing is 0.00024713
-The probability of getting less then 11(< 11) answers right by guessing is 0.99996
-The probability of getting at least 11(>= 11) answers right by guessing is 0.00028524 only 1 in 3505.8
-Guessed right Probability
- 0 0.010023
- 1 0.053454
- 2 0.13363
- 3 0.20788
- 4 0.2252
- 5 0.18016
- 6 0.1101
- 7 0.052427
- 8 0.01966
- 9 0.0058253
-10 0.0013592
-11 0.00024713
-12 3.4324e-005
-13 3.5204e-006
-14 2.5146e-007
-15 1.1176e-008
-16 2.3283e-010
+Probability of getting none right is 0.0100226
+Probability of getting exactly one right is 0.0534538
+Probability of getting exactly two right is 0.133635
+Probability of getting exactly 11 answers right by chance is 2.32831e-010
+Guessed Probability
+ 0 0.0100226
+ 1 0.0534538
+ 2 0.133635
+ 3 0.207876
+ 4 0.225199
+ 5 0.180159
+ 6 0.110097
+ 7 0.0524273
+ 8 0.0196602
+ 9 0.00582526
+10 0.00135923
+11 0.000247132
+12 3.43239e-005
+13 3.5204e-006
+14 2.51457e-007
+15 1.11759e-008
+16 2.32831e-010
+Probability of getting none or one right is 0.0634764
+Probability of getting none or one right is 0.0634764
+Probability of getting <= 10 right (to fail) is 0.999715
+Probability of getting > 10 right (to pass) is 0.000285239
+Probability of getting > 10 right (to pass) is 0.000285239
+Probability of getting less than 11 (< 11) answers right by guessing is 0.999715
+Probability of getting at least 11(>= 11) answers right by guessing is 0.000285239, only 1 in 3505.83
At most (<=)
-Guessed right Probability
- 0 0.010023
- 1 0.063476
- 2 0.19711
- 3 0.40499
- 4 0.63019
- 5 0.81035
- 6 0.92044
- 7 0.97287
- 8 0.99253
- 9 0.99836
-10 0.99971
-11 0.99996
-12 1
-13 1
-14 1
-15 1
-16 1
+Guessed OK Probability
+ 0 0.01002259576
+ 1 0.0634764398
+ 2 0.1971110499
+ 3 0.4049871101
+ 4 0.6301861752
+ 5 0.8103454274
+ 6 0.9204427481
+ 7 0.9728700437
+ 8 0.9925302796
+ 9 0.9983555346
+10 0.9997147608
+11 0.9999618928
+12 0.9999962167
+13 0.9999997371
+14 0.9999999886
+15 0.9999999998
+16 1
At least (>=)
-Guessed right Probability
- 0 0.98998
- 1 0.93652
- 2 0.80289
- 3 0.59501
- 4 0.36981
- 5 0.18965
- 6 0.079557
- 7 0.02713
- 8 0.0074697
- 9 0.0016445
-10 0.00028524
-11 3.8107e-005
-12 3.7833e-006
-13 2.6287e-007
-14 1.1409e-008
-15 2.3283e-010
-16 0
-The probability of getting between 3 and 5 answers right by guessing is 0.61323
-The probability of getting between 3 and 5 answers right by guessing is 0.61323
-The probability of getting between 1 and 6 answers right by guessing is 0.91042
-The probability of getting between 1 and 8 answers right by guessing is 0.98251
-The probability of getting between 4 and 4 answers right by guessing is 0.2252
-The probability of getting between 3 and 5 answers right by guessing is 0.61323
+Guessed OK Probability
+ 0 0.9899774042
+ 1 0.9365235602
+ 2 0.8028889501
+ 3 0.5950128899
+ 4 0.3698138248
+ 5 0.1896545726
+ 6 0.07955725188
+ 7 0.02712995629
+ 8 0.00746972044
+ 9 0.001644465374
+10 0.0002852391917
+11 3.810715862e-005
+12 3.783265129e-006
+13 2.628657967e-007
+14 1.140870154e-008
+15 2.328306437e-010
+16 0
+Probability of getting between 3 and 5 answers right by guessing is 0.6132
+Probability of getting between 3 and 5 answers right by guessing is 0.6132
+Probability of getting between 1 and 6 answers right by guessing is 0.9104
+Probability of getting between 1 and 8 answers right by guessing is 0.9825
+Probability of getting between 4 and 4 answers right by guessing is 0.2252
+Probability of getting between 3 and 5 answers right by guessing is 0.6132
By guessing, on average, one can expect to get 4 correct answers.
-Standard deviation is 1.7321
+Standard deviation is 1.732
So about 2/3 will lie within 1 standard deviation and get between 3 and 5 correct.
Mode (the most frequent) is 4
-Skewness is 0.28868
-Quantiles
+Skewness is 0.2887
Quartiles 2 to 5
-1 sd 2 to 5
+1 standard deviation 2 to 5
Deciles 1 to 6
5 to 95% 0 to 7
2.5 to 97.5% 0 to 8
2 to 98% 0 to 8
If guessing then percentiles 1 to 99% will get 0 to 8 right.
-Real Quartiles 2.2821 to 4.6212
+Quartiles 2 to 4.621
+1 standard deviation 2.665 to 4.194
+Deciles 1.349 to 5.758
+5 to 95% 0.8374 to 6.456
+2.5 to 97.5% 0.4281 to 7.069
+2 to 98% 0.3131 to 7.252
+If guessing then percentiles 1 to 99% will get 0 to 7.788 right.
*/
Boost-Commit list run by bdawes at acm.org, david.abrahams at rcn.com, gregod at cs.rpi.edu, cpdaniel at pacbell.net, john at johnmaddock.co.uk